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交易和成功風險管理箴言!(二)

  60?Major trends are seldom broken unless market goes against trend for more than 3 consecutive days?
 
  除非市場連續三天同潮流走反向,主要潮流很少會轉移方向。
 
  61?If a market doesn't do what you think it should and you're tired of waiting,you'd better be out of it?
 
  如果市場所做的不是你認為它應該做的,而你對等待已感到厭倦,你最好退出市場。
 
  62?Stay calm and maintain clear thinking when trading big positions?
 
  交易大宗頭寸時,要保持冷靜和頭腦清醒。
 
  63?Reevaluate your position in the market if charts have deteriorated and fundamentals have not developed as you expected?
 
  如果圖形走弱,而且基本面的發展不像你所預期的那樣,重新對你在市場的頭寸作估價。
 
  64?Above all be mentally prepared for the rigors of each trading day from the time you get up each morning until you go to bed at night?
 
  最重要的是在精神上對每個交易日的嚴峻場面作好準備,從每天早晨你爬起來,一直到晚上回到床上。
 
  65?Do whatever is necessary to stay on top of the markets you are trading?
 
  竭盡全力,停留在你所交易的市場的頂部。
 
  66?Believe that the market is stronger than you are?Do not try to fight the market?
 
  相信市場比你要強大。不要企圖同市場抗爭。
 
  67?Beware of large positions that can control your emotions and feelings?In other words don't be overly aggressive with the market?Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts?
 
  對那些會控制你情緒波動的大頭寸保持警惕,也就是說,在市場上不要過分冒進。與其暴贏,不如緩進,穩扎穩打地積累資產。
 
  68?Capital preservation is just as important as capital appreciation?
 
  資本保存同資本增值一樣要緊。
 
  69?When a market's gotten away and you've missed the first leg you should still consider jumping in even if it is dangerous and difficult?
 
  如果市場已經起步了而你錯過了第一輪烽火,你不妨仍然考慮中途介入,即使這樣做是危險而困難的。
 
  70?Work hard at understanding the key factor(s)motivating the market(s)you are trading?In other words,the harder you work the luckier you'll be?
 
  交易時,努力去理解那些推動市場的關鍵因素。換句話說,越努力你就會越幸運。
 
  71?Remember that it's better to trade a few big moves a year(and close them out profitably)than to trade constantly?
 
  記住,與其不斷地交易,不如每年少交易幾手(并在贏利時出手)。
 
  72?Set an objective for each trade you enter and get out when you meet it?Don't be greedy!
 
  為你的每一手交易設立一個目標,達到目標就出手。不要貪心!
 
  73?Remember that for many commodities,politics are more important than economics?
 
  記住,對許多商品來說,政治比經濟更重要。
 
  74?Never add to a losing position?
 
  不要在輸錢的頭寸上加碼。
 
  75?Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms?
 
  挑選底部和頂部時要小心。
 
  76?Worry about how much you can lose?Figure risk reward ratio ahead of trade?Strive for at least 3x potential profit vs?loss?
 
  要想到你能夠輸多少錢,交易前就想好風險回報比例。盡力做到可能的盈利要三倍于可能的虧損。
 
  77?If it appears that lots of bulls are long,be nervous!
 
  如果看上去有很多多頭在買,你就需要警惕起來。
 
  78?If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be true you'd better take profits?
 
  如果你在市場上領先一籌,而且所有的消息都好得難以置信,你最好是收回你的盈利,出市走人。
 
  79?The news always follows the market?
 
  新聞總是尾隨市場之后。
 
  80?There is only one side to the market;and it is not the bull side or the bear side,but the right side?
 
  市場只有一種,不是牛市或熊市,而是正確之市。
 
  81?A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game?
 
  如果有人想在這場游戲里生存,他必須相信自己和自己的判斷力。
 
  82?It is the big swing that makes the big money for you?“It was never my wishing that made the big money for me?It was always my sitting tight?”Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon?The market does not beat them?They beat themselves?You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight?
 
  大浪潮為你創造大筆財富。“為我帶來大筆財富的從來就不是我的祈求。它從來都是因為我坐著不動。”能夠既正確又坐著不動的人是不多見的。市場打不敗他們,打敗他們的是他們自己。一定要有堅韌的勇氣和智慧的耐心,你才做得到坐著不動。
 
  83?To buy on a rising market is a most comfortable way of buying?Buy on a scale up?Sell on a scale down?
 
  最不讓人擔心的買進方法是在一個上升的市場里買進。買高賣低。
 
  84?Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling?But after the initial transaction,don't make a second unless the first shows a profit?
 
  商品沒有高到不該再買的時候,也沒有低到不該再賣的時候。不過,在最初的轉手后,除非第一手交易獲利了,不要再做第二手。
 
  85?Realize that the big money comes in the big swing?Whatever might seem to give a big swing,its initial impulse,the fact is that no matter who opposes it,the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine?
 
  要意識到大筆錢來自大浪潮。無論什么是看上去會掀起大浪潮的,它最初的鼓動,事實是,不管是誰對抗它,大浪潮都無可避免地必然按照推動它的力量所決定的速度,沖到推動它的力量所決定的遠處。
 
  86?In the long run,commodity prices are governed but by one law,the economic law of demand and supply?
 
  從長遠來看,決定商品價格的只有一條法則,供與求的經濟法則。
 
  87?A loss never bothers me after I take it?I forget it overnight?But being wrong and not taking the loss,that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul?
 
  當我接受了一手輸了的交易,我就不再為它煩惱。隔了一夜我就忘了。但是,如果我做得不對,不肯接受我輸了的事實,這才會既對記賬本也對心靈造成損害。
 
  88?It is profitable to study your mistakes?
 
  研究你的錯誤會給你帶來利潤。
 
  89?Of all speculative blunders,there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss?
 
  在所有為投機而犯的愚蠢的錯誤里,很少有比賣掉會賺錢、買進要賠錢的更愚蠢的了。
 
  90?Nothing is new in commodities!The game does not change and neither does human nature?
 
  期貨交易里沒有什么新東西!游戲沒有變;人性也沒有變。
 
  91?In a bear market,it is always wise to cover if complete demoralization suddenly develops?
 
  在熊市里,一旦突然全場士氣低落,你最好趕快平倉。
 
  92?The principles of successful commodity speculation is based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past?
 
  成功的期貨投機,其原理建立在這樣的假設上:人們在未來會重犯他們在過去犯過的錯誤。
 
  93?In a bull market and particularly in booms,the public at first makes money,which it later looses simply by overstaying the bull market?
 
  在牛市里,特別是在高峰的時候,公眾最初贏錢,然后就因為在牛市里停留太長,而全輸了回去。
 
  94?A bull market needs to be fed every day,a bear market only once a week?
 
  牛市需要每天為它提供給養;熊市只需要一個星期為它提供一次給養。
 
  95?Never underestimate how much time is necessary to wash out a market that is long?
 
  不要過低估量需要多少時間清洗一個看多的市場。
 
  96?Never buy the first rally and never sell the first break?
 
  不要在第一次回升時買進,也不要在第一次下跌時賣出。
 
  97?Be advised that it is better to be more interested in the market's reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself?
 
  最好是記住,與其對一則新聞本身感興趣,不如對市場對該則新消息的反應感興趣。
 
  98?Don't diversify,concentrate on a few commodities?More diversity reduces amount you can speculate with?Also too much to watch?
 
  不要撒芝麻在幾種商品上。分布過散會減少你能用以投機的數量。況且要看管的太多。
 
  99?Don't pioneer highs or lows?Let the market tell you a high or low has been made?
 
  不要在高處或低處打沖鋒。讓市場告訴你什么是新高或新低。
 
  100?Keep some perspective?Trees don't grow to the sky?values don't go to zero?What are histories and recent highs and lows,Loan levels,Loans are not necessarily price floors?CCC selling prices aren't necessarily price ceilings?
 
  持有你自己的觀點。樹木長不到天空那么高,價值不會跌到等于零。貸款不一定就是價格的底部。商品信用公司(CCC)的銷售價不一定就是價格的頂部。
 
  101?“If you get in on Jones'tip;get out on Jones'tip”?If you are riding another person's idea,ride it all the way?
 
  “如果你是根據張三的小道消息走進市場,那就按照張三的小道消息走出市場”。如果你是依賴別人的主意行事,那就按照他的主意走到底。
 
  102?Run early or not at all?Don't be an eleven o'clock bull or a five o'clock bear?
 
  要么就早跑,要么就別跑。不要做11點鐘的牛,或者5點鐘的熊。
 
  103?Woodrow Wilson said,“a governments first priority is to organize the common interest against special interests”?Successful traders seek out market opportunities capitalizing on the reality that government's first priority is rarely achieved?
 
  伍德儒?威爾遜說過:“一個政府的首要任務是把共有的利益組織起來以對抗特殊的利益。”在現實中,這一政府的首要任務難得真正實現。成功的交易者尋求的市場機會就是建立在這樣的現實上的。
 
  104?People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers?
 
  那些相信報紙頭條的人最終的命運就是賣報紙。
 
  105?If you do not know who you are,the market is an expensive place to find out?
 
  如果你對自己缺乏了解,市場是一個昂貴的地方來發現你自己。
 
  106?Never give advice─the smart don't need it and the stupid don't heed it?
 
  不要給別人出主意──聰明人不需要,傻瓜不會聽你的。
 
  107?Disregard all prognostications?In the world of money,which is a world shaped by human behavior,nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future?Mark that word─nobody!Thus the successful trader bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen?
 
  無視所有的預言。金錢的世界是一個以人的行為勾畫出的世界。在金錢世界里,沒有一個人對將來會有絲毫的概念。記住這個詞的沒有一個人。所以,成功的交易者不是把自己的行動建筑在什么是應該發生的上,而是對所發生的事而作出反應。
 
  108?Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health?If you are not worried,you are not risking enough?
 
  擔心不是病狀,而是健康的標幟。如果你不擔心,那就說明你承擔的風險還不夠。
 
  109?Except in unusual circumstances,get in the habit of taking your profit too soon?Don't torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you?Chances are it won't continue long?If it does console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early preserved gains you would otherwise have lost?
 
  除了在不同尋常的情況里,養成早些兌現你的盈利的習慣。不要折磨你自己即使你出來之后那筆交易還在贏錢。非常可能的是這不會延續很長。即使這種情況繼續下去,想一想所有由于你提前平倉而避免了失去既得盈利的場合。
 
  110?When the ship starts to sink,don't pray─jump!
 
  一旦船開始下沉,不要祈禱──跳船!
 
  111?Life never happens in a straight line?Any adult knows this?But we can too easily be hypnotized into forgetting it when contemplating a chart?Beware of the chartist's illusion?
 
  生活從來就不是一條直線。每一個成年人都知道這一點。可是,當我們在觀看圖表時太容易被引導得忘掉這一點。警惕圖表制作者創造的幻覺。
 
  112?Optimism means expecting the best,but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst?Never make a move if you are merely optimistic?
 
  樂觀主義意味著期望最好的情況發生。自信心意味著知道一旦最壞的情況發生你會怎樣處理。如果你只是樂觀而已,千萬不要輕舉妄動。
 
  113?Whatever you do,whether you bet with the herd or against,think it through independently first?
 
  不管你做什么,不管你是隨流而下還是逆流而上,首先對你要做的事作一獨立的思考。
 
  114?Repeatedly reevaluate your open positions?Keep asking yourself:would I put my money into this if it were presented to me for the first time today?Is this trade progressing toward the ending position I envisioned?
 
  反覆地重新衡量你的持倉頭寸。不斷地問自己:如果這是我今天第一次才看到的,我會投錢進去嗎?這手交易是不是在向我想像的方向發展?
 
  115?It is a safe bet that the money lost by(short term)speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments“ride”?Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all?The intelligent trader will?By acting promptly─hold losses to a minimum?
 
  可以這么說,比起那些讓他們的投資“隨波逐流”的人所損失的巨額款項來,(短線)的投機所損失的還是小數目。長線投資者在進入交易之后,常常待著不走而最終全都輸掉。在這種意義上,他們是最大的賭博者。智慧的交易者,通過及時采取行動,把損失限制在最小的范圍內。
 
  116?As a rule of thumb good trend lines should touch at least three previous highs or lows?The more points the line catches,the better the line?
 
  實際經驗證明,一條可信的市場動向曲線應當至少三次碰到先前的高峰點或低谷點。一條曲線能抓住的接觸點越多,這條曲線就越可信。
 
  117?Volume and open interest are as important to the technician as price?
 
  對技術分析來說,交易量和持倉量同價格一樣重要。
 
  118.The clearest and easiest way to determine a trend is from previous highs and lows.Higher highs and higher lows mark an uptrend,lower highs and lower lows mark a downtrend.
 
  確定市場動向的最清楚和最容易的方法是根據舊高和舊低。高于舊高和舊低標志著向上的走向,低于舊高和舊低標志著朝下的走向
 
  119.Don't sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell-off is actually a very bullish situation.
 
  不要在一個剛經過跌落的安靜的市場里賣。因為低流量的跌市實際上是一個非常看多的處境
 
  120.Prices are made in the minds of men,not in the soybean field:fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.
 
  價格是在人的頭腦里訂出來的,而不是在大豆田里訂出來的。恐懼和貪婪可以把價格暫時推到遠離所謂的實際價格之外
 
  121.When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high,it is a buy signal.When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low,it is a sell signal.
 
  當市場穿過一個星期或一個月的高位時,這是買的信號。當它穿過前一星期或前一月低位時,這是賣的信號
 
  122.Every sunken ship has a chart.
 
  沒有一艘沉船是不備有圖表的
 
  123.Take a trading break.A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
 
  在交易之中不妨找個時間休息一下。休息一下可以讓你站在另一個角度上來看一看市場,讓你重新看一看你自己以及你在以后幾個星期內想用的交易方法
 
  124.Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
 
  讓你每根骨頭的骨髓里都滲透一套對你有用的交易規則
 
  125.
 
  一個牛市運動的最后階段是一場接近頂部的加速賽跑。在這一階段,市場總是讓你相信你低估了潛在的牛市。隨著盈利膨脹到讓你相信你的賬戶可以對付任何挫折,繼續堆砌你的頭寸金字塔的誘惑強大。在這關鍵的時候,要緊的是從你的金字塔上拿走你的盈利,把你的頭寸減少到基本水平。隨后,當這一運動變得顯然結束了時,將這基本頭寸也平倉。

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